Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 130,646
2 South Dakota 126,385
3 Rhode Island 117,729
4 Utah 114,973
5 Arizona 111,647
6 Tennessee 110,156
7 Oklahoma 106,397
8 Iowa 106,071
9 Wisconsin 105,500
10 Arkansas 105,174
11 Nebraska 103,525
12 Kansas 101,599
13 Alabama 99,979
14 South Carolina 98,868
15 Indiana 98,220
16 Mississippi 98,076
17 Idaho 95,324
18 Nevada 94,837
19 Illinois 93,309
20 Wyoming 93,282
21 Montana 92,968
22 Louisiana 91,835
23 Georgia 91,321
24 Texas 90,546
25 Kentucky 90,481
26 California 89,809
27 Delaware 87,809
28 Florida 87,795
29 New Mexico 87,647
30 New Jersey 87,296
31 Minnesota 85,273
32 Missouri 83,937
33 Massachusetts 83,262
34 New York 82,827
35 Ohio 82,127
36 North Carolina 81,442
37 Alaska 78,669
38 Connecticut 78,025
39 Colorado 74,023
40 West Virginia 72,751
41 Pennsylvania 72,306
42 Virginia 66,656
43 Michigan 64,202
44 Maryland 62,635
45 District of Columbia 56,596
46 New Hampshire 54,613
47 Washington 44,637
48 Puerto Rico 41,686
49 Oregon 36,528
50 Maine 32,658
51 Vermont 23,667
52 Hawaii 19,218

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Rhode Island 494
2 Connecticut 475
3 New Jersey 337
4 New York 331
5 South Carolina 316
6 Texas 290
7 Georgia 279
8 Delaware 264
9 Florida 262
10 Alaska 260
11 Kentucky 245
12 North Carolina 240
13 Alabama 229
14 Kansas 226
15 Massachusetts 222
16 Iowa 213
17 Idaho 209
18 Arkansas 207
19 New Hampshire 207
20 Arizona 201
21 Louisiana 197
22 Pennsylvania 194
23 Utah 194
24 South Dakota 189
25 Virginia 188
26 Montana 182
27 Colorado 177
28 Ohio 177
29 Michigan 167
30 New Mexico 157
31 Nebraska 154
32 Vermont 146
33 California 144
34 West Virginia 142
35 Mississippi 141
36 District of Columbia 139
37 Oklahoma 139
38 Illinois 134
39 Washington 129
40 Indiana 124
41 Maryland 117
42 Nevada 117
43 Wisconsin 116
44 Missouri 114
45 North Dakota 111
46 Wyoming 111
47 Minnesota 106
48 Maine 99
49 Oregon 98
50 Puerto Rico 45
51 Hawaii 32
52 Tennessee 29

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,593
2 New York 2,399
3 Rhode Island 2,347
4 Massachusetts 2,313
5 Mississippi 2,219
6 Arizona 2,156
7 Connecticut 2,130
8 South Dakota 2,107
9 Louisiana 2,049
10 Alabama 1,987
11 North Dakota 1,928
12 Pennsylvania 1,861
13 Indiana 1,851
14 Arkansas 1,785
15 Illinois 1,781
16 New Mexico 1,745
17 Iowa 1,716
18 Michigan 1,640
19 Tennessee 1,636
20 South Carolina 1,631
21 Kansas 1,621
22 Nevada 1,597
23 Georgia 1,557
24 Texas 1,484
25 Ohio 1,458
26 Delaware 1,439
27 District of Columbia 1,418
28 Florida 1,412
29 Missouri 1,354
30 California 1,289
31 Maryland 1,288
32 West Virginia 1,275
33 Montana 1,262
34 Wisconsin 1,191
35 Wyoming 1,159
36 Minnesota 1,154
37 Nebraska 1,126
38 Oklahoma 1,077
39 North Carolina 1,058
40 Kentucky 1,048
41 Colorado 1,043
42 Idaho 1,030
43 Virginia 914
44 New Hampshire 850
45 Washington 655
46 Puerto Rico 628
47 Utah 586
48 Oregon 522
49 Maine 503
50 Alaska 381
51 Vermont 322
52 Hawaii 305

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Rhode Island 34
2 Virginia 18
3 California 13
4 Kansas 12
5 Delaware 11
6 Alabama 10
7 Georgia 9
8 Arizona 8
9 Iowa 8
10 Missouri 8
11 Texas 8
12 Connecticut 6
13 Florida 6
14 Kentucky 6
15 New Jersey 6
16 Ohio 6
17 Oklahoma 6
18 Tennessee 6
19 Massachusetts 5
20 Mississippi 5
21 Nevada 5
22 New Mexico 5
23 New York 5
24 Wyoming 5
25 Indiana 4
26 Louisiana 4
27 Maine 4
28 Maryland 4
29 North Carolina 4
30 Pennsylvania 4
31 South Carolina 4
32 Washington 4
33 West Virginia 4
34 Arkansas 3
35 Oregon 3
36 Wisconsin 3
37 District of Columbia 2
38 Idaho 2
39 Illinois 2
40 Puerto Rico 2
41 Utah 2
42 Vermont 2
43 Colorado 1
44 Michigan 1
45 Montana 1
46 Nebraska 1
47 Alaska 0
48 Hawaii 0
49 Minnesota 0
50 New Hampshire 0
51 North Dakota 0
52 South Dakota 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 323,874 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 278,903 2 99
Bent Colorado 263,403 3 99
Lincoln Arkansas 240,709 4 99
Dewey South Dakota 239,477 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 128,339 227 92
Richland South Carolina 98,240 1108 64
York South Carolina 92,405 1371 56
Orange California 81,921 1858 40
Pierce Washington 42,072 2901 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 8,346 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 2 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,108 3 99
Galax city Virginia 6,932 4 99
Foard Texas 6,926 5 99
Orange California 1,212 1947 38
Davidson Tennessee 1,212 1949 37
Richland South Carolina 1,171 1994 36
York South Carolina 1,153 2019 35
Pierce Washington 599 2698 14

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons